출처: Don't Be A Cud Chewer In 2013 (forbes.com)
간단한 검색을 통해 포브스에 기고한 켄 피셔의 칼럼들 중 현재 확인할 수 있는(아마도?) 가장 오래된 칼럼이다.
2013년 1월 2일 기사인데
맨 밑 단락은 켄 피셔가 추천하는 2013년의 top-5 picks; JNJ, CHL, TSM, BASFY, AMZN
인데 하나같이 다 (당시에) 경제적 해자를 가진 기업들이다. 이건 그닥 중요하지 않다.
이 칼럼의 요지는: 2013년은 bull market이 될 것이라는 것이다.
무슨 근거로?
켄의 주장은;
- 유럽발 금융위기(의 전이)-이미 당시 3년간 위험요소였으나 주가는 상승, 오바마의 재선(오바마 케어), debt crisis 등 세 가지에 대한 불안감이 있음에도 불구하고, 이런 (쏠림 현상=hear behavior) 심리는 이미 주가에 반영되어 있으며
- 비슷한 예로 가장 최근의 Fiscal Cliff, 오바마케어 그리고 Dodd-Frank법이 있다.
- 오히려 사람들은 QE를 간과하는데, 켄은 QE를 (2013년 시장) bull market에 해가 될 수 있는 위험 요인으로 꼽는다. M2 통화량은 2008년 QE1때부터 거의 증가하지 않았다-즉, 이는 경기부양책도 아니며 인플레이션을 유발하지도 않았다. M2 통화량이 증가하려면 은행들이 순대출을 해야하는데, 그러지 못했으니.
그래서 오히려 2013년엔 주식 투자를 걱정하지 않아도 좋다.
라고 하는 듯하다.
실제로 Yahoo Finance에서 보면 알 수 있듯이, (e.g. ^GSPC, VOO),
2013년은 (장기적으로 봤을 때) 강세장의 한 가운데였고 단기로(ytd로) 봤을때도 대체적으로 bull market이었다.
Q) Fiscal Cliff가 뭐길래 2013년의 주식시장이 bearish하진 않을 것이라는 주장을 했던걸까?:
This story appears in the January 20, 2013 issue of Forbes. Subscribe
Negatives continue to abound. So why do I expect stocks to shine in 2013? Because I'm not a cow, I'm a bull. Let me explain: Most negatives you hear about are well known and widely discussed, digested and already priced into stocks.
If it's widely known, it's either wrong or will have little impact on stocks. Fear of Europe? We've fretted over it for three years while stocks rose. Another Obama term—fully four years of fretting under our belts! The debt crisis—we will be fretting about that forever.
Markets are designed to price in all widely known factors. I see little now where the cud hasn't already been chewed and rechewed. What's a cud? A mass of semidegraded food that is regurgitated. It's comfort food for cows and other herd animals. Following the herd can be dangerous to your financial health.
The herd's latest obsession is the Fiscal Cliff. When Fiscal Cliff cud-chewing ends, they will rechew ObamaCare and then possibly Dodd-Frank. It's all cud to me.
There is one fear I have that few are focusing on. It's quantitative easing. I believe it's actually contractionary and definitely nothing to be bullish about.
You should note that the actual broad quantity of money (M2 for example) has barely grown since QE1 began in 2008. Reserves grow, but the money supply doesn't. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is paying interest on reserves and has flattened the yield curve. This has made banks less inclined to lend.
If you've taken Econ 101 you know that the quantity of money rises only when the banking system makes a net loan. So QE1 and all its successors have been neither stimulative nor inflationary. Bernanke is simply improving banks' balance sheets and financing the Treasury. These, I believe, are his real, hidden goals.
I dislike Bernanke and President Obama, and I didn't like George W. Bush, either. Still, the Obama market has done well.
The point, of course, is that Obama-related fears are already baked into the market. So don't chew cud and fall prey to this phobia.
The widespread skepticism is hiding a global Goldilocks economy—one that grows not too fast, not too slow and has little inflation. To me it's a golden recipe for delicious returns in stocks for 2013.
Here are five big stocks that I expect will lead the market.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, 71) is surely the most diverse major health care firm—spanning pharmaceuticals, medical devices and an unrivaled won't-quit list of popular consumer brands. It sells at 15 times my estimate of 2013 earnings with a 3.5% dividend yield.
If you believe in Chinese growth, believe in China Mobile (CHL, 58) , the world's largest mobile carrier, with 700 million-plus customers. It may be the most profitable entity the PRC controls. With growth comes increased telecom usage—making China Mobile attractive at 14 times my estimated 2013 earnings, with a 3.8% dividend yield.
Giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, 17) is the top contract chipmaker, with roughly half the market. It excels via efficiency. In electronics, when you don't know who made it, think, "Taiwan Semi Inside." It's Intel's real competition—selling at 18 times 2013 earnings with a 2.9% dividend yield.
Today Germany's BASF (BASFY, 97) is a leader in specialty chemicals—growing where competitors largely aren't. It emphasizes Asia but spans 170 countries. It sells at 13 times my 2013 earnings estimate with a 3.4% dividend yield.
Amazon.com (AMZN, 258) keeps growing--innovating and blazing its own path. Whether for shopping or reading or seeking information. It's already producing films, and I'm sure it will soon offer a smartphone. Amazon knows how to become indispensable. It isn't cheap but definitely a buy.
Ken Fisher wrote the Forbes Portfolio Strategy column for 32 ½ years until Dec. 31, 2016, making him the longest running columnist in Forbes’ history. He is also the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, an independent, fee-only investment adviser serving a global client base of diverse investors. He is the author of 11 books, 6 of which are national best sellers. Ken Fisher started writing his monthly column in 1984, the same year he gained international attention for his book Super Stocks, which popularized the price-to-sales ratio. His writing for Forbes was commemorated in a book published by Wiley in 2010, The Making of a Market Guru: Forbes Presents 25 Years of Ken Fisher. He was honored by Investment Advisor magazine as one of the industry's 30 most influential individuals over the last 30 years (Thirty for Thirty, May 2010). He is ranked on the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans. For an archive of past columns, visit: www.fisherinvestments.com/education/investing-articles/forbes Read Less
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